Two articles by the Guardian’s environment editor, Juliette Jowitt make it seem as if Bjorn “skeptical environmentalist” Lomborg has performed a u-turn on his approach to anthropogenic global warming:
The world’s most high-profile climate change sceptic is to declare that global warming is “undoubtedly one of the chief concerns facing the world today” and “a challenge humanity must confront”, in an apparent U-turn that will give a huge boost to the embattled environmental lobby.
Bjørn Lomborg, the self-styled “sceptical environmentalist” once compared to Adolf Hitler by the UN’s climate chief, is famous for attacking climate scientists, campaigners, the media and others for exaggerating the rate of global warming and its effects on humans, and the costly waste of policies to stop the problem.
But in a new book to be published next month, Lomborg will call for tens of billions of dollars a year to be invested in tackling climate change. “Investing $100bn annually would mean that we could essentially resolve the climate change problem by the end of this century,” the book concludes.
Impressive. Or it would be, if $100bn was more than has already been agreed to in the (non-binding) Copenhagen Accords, which have already been slammed as too little, too late. In fact Corbin Hiar at UNDispatch has found that rich countries have already exceeded their pledges for 2010 by a quarter of a billion dollars.
Flicking through what’s viewable of Lomborg’s latest edited volume, is that he makes the case for unproven geoengineering, and pins all hope in a technological miracle whilst also saying that there is no need to do virtually any carbon reduction. However, as Corbin notes, the costs from the Pakistan floods and Russian wildfires already exceed $30 billion.
The more cynical me would say that the timing of the book launch, close to COP16 in Cancun, is an attempt to derail negotiations over setting a necessary upper bar to CO2 concentrations.
Tony Blair, in last night’s interview with Andrew Marr [UK], whilst trying to deflect criticism on the legality of the Iraq war said “we are about to face, in respect of Iran a very similar type of decision.”
No, we’re not. As Marc Lynch, amongst others has argued:
- a military strike is not likely to put an end to Iran’s nuclear potential, or to provide any significant sense of certainty (I do not find Goldberg’s notion of Israeli commandos quickly darting in from Iraqi Kurdistan to check things out especially reassuring).
- the idea Israel has a fixed deadline is not credible. Israeli officials and American Iran hawks have paraded a never-ending series of such immutable deadlines over the last decade — of 2006, of 2007, of 2008, and now of December 2010. None proved quite so immutable.
Blair drew clear red lines around the possibility of a nuclear Iran, on which the following exchange took place:
Marr: But what can we do about it?
Blair: And, um, and um I think we’ve got to be prepared to confront them, er
Marr: Militarily?
Blair: If necessarily militarily
Marr: Militarily?
Blair: If necessary militarily. I – I think there is no alternative to that um if they continue to develop nuclear weapons and they need to get that message loud and clear.
And, Marc Lynch’s take:
The costs could be high: a strike by Americans or Israelis could trigger a wave of regional chaos, badly weaken the already struggling Green Movement, and seriously complicate the U.S. drawdown from Iraq. It would prove the death-knell for Obama’s efforts to construct a new relationship with the Muslim communities of the world, trigger a wave of anti-American rage among Arab publics, deeply complicate the tentative moves towards Israeli-Palestinian peace talks.
Blair also certainly doesn’t seem to have a good grip on Islamic radicalism:
Marr: After 9/11, you thought there was a sort of world war between Islamism and the West, however we define it.
Blair: Well this extremist strain with Islam, yeah.
Marr: And has the West got what it takes?
Blair: You know, this is, It’s a global phenomenon and – and the sooner we understand that and deal with it and recognise, and this is the (unclear).
This is pure clash of civilisations speak. He fails to understand that this is just as much a conflict within Islam. Then again, he’s not one for nuance, when he claims that Saddam would have competed with an alternative “extremism” with Iran. Saddam may have been a fascist, but an extremist Islamist he was not.
This leads me to wonder whether or not Tony Blair is in fact a liability in the Middle East peace process. If not for fear mongering over Iranian capability and intent, than over the fact that he’s internalised the rhetoric of actors who want to nudge US in the direction of dangerous military action.
This is an FAQ for all potential Labour leaders and their supporters:
Why did Labour lose the last general election?
Whose fault was it that Labour lost the last general election?
Maybe, Alan Greenspan, AIG, Lehman, etc…
K, Thx, Bi.
A couple of weeks ago, I participated in a debate on formally entitled “is the burqa a threat to freedom,” with staffers from the Quilliam Foundation (speaking in a personal capacity in a devil’s advocate role), although the debate largely centred on the merits of banning the item of clothing.
Naturally, I took the position of being against a ban on the burqa, and in my mind, this definitely seems like the easier case to make from within the liberal tradition. Of course, the easy argument is to privilege the understanding of liberty based upon non-interference from the state. However, this simple framing doesn’t adequately deal with the internal minority problem – that of the interference with the lives of individuals from parents, community, cultural moirés etc… I wanted to take more seriously this issue, and for that I turned to Cecile Laborde’s Critical Republicanism. Her starting point is a more vigorous understanding of freedom as a state of non-domination.
Olivier Roy lays out the case made against the Anglophone liberal position on the veil:
“A young girl wearing a veil is necessarily manipulated, and the paradox is that we repress her the better to liberate her: since the veil is a sign of enslavement, a woman could not possibly choose it voluntarily. The same reasoning drove the French Revolution to prohibit religious orders, because a free person could not voluntarily alienate his own freedom.”
For Laborde, such a position is too paternalistic, and is in itself a violation of freedom. Laborde relies on Philip Pettit’s two types of freedom to make the case – freedom from domination by the state, imperium, and freedom from domination by other collective actors, dominium. Only the individual can emancipate themselves from conditions of domination. They may be empowered to emancipate themselves, but in the case of the veil, at least if we buy into the concept of self-emancipation, we cannot simultaneously justify coercing girls into behaving “autonomously”.
The other major problem with the above hard-line secularist approach, is that it ignores the consequences of banning the burqa, which in France has meant excluding Muslim girls from schools. Although exclusion remains the sanction of last resort, this forms a rather cruel and unusual punishment for what is essentially the wearing of an item of clothing. Scores of otherwise well-behaved, studious pupils are now having to learn at home, a sign that the very gender inequality that the ban sought to combat is perpetuated by the very act that is done in the name of women. Hard-line secularists don’t pause to consider that although the burqa is a religious symbol, making rules regarding it affects actual people.
The core of the opposing argument seemed to rest on the issue that those who wear the burqa come from communities who wilfully choose not to integrate with the mainstream, and want to live in ghettos. This seemed to me a complete internalisation of white majority concerns about ethnic minorities, and perhaps more importantly, that of the growing visibility of Muslims. It’s built on the myth that we live in a non-discriminatory “post-racial” society, the falsity of which has been drawn into sharp relief by the controversy over the “ground zero mosque.”
Again, Laborde refers to civic virtue and Jerry Cohen’s idea that citizens can only act justly in a just society, and asks how can we force Muslims to reform when the underlying structural conditions of segregation continue to exist. We can’t separate ghettoization from issues of white flight, poor and/or inappropriate public service provision, and socioeconomic class. Furthermore, Olivier Roy argues that by making secularism into a repressive device, we put religion at the centre of the debate and make it an effective alternative to the entire political order. As the agenda setters make Islam the dominant marker of disaffected youth, secular Muslims get left aside. Islam is then seen as a post-cultural transcendent ideology that affirms a sense of identity and protest at social injustice.
Another key argument of the opposition was that the burqa is necessarily a means of oppression. But is it? For example, Saba Mahmood’s anthropological study of the Cairo women’s piety movement found that women don the veil as part of a constructive project to develop an assertively Muslim identity that is often set against the wishes of wayward husbands and often abusive families (even in a country where there’s a lot more pressure to wear the veil). Yet hard-line secularists equate the hijab with forced marriage – one is an obviously non-voluntary practice, the other is not obviously so. Secularists may then argue that women who nevertheless voluntarily wear the veil do so because of oppressive social norms that have been internalised. But why single out the veil in particular as a form of false consciousness? Muslim women are right to assert that media-driven norms of the sexualisation of womanhood represent equally oppressive norms.
So, what to do?
We shouldn’t ban the veil, since this an intervention that is paternalistic, and cannot be justified on the grounds of autonomy. At most, all we can do is to further the autonomy of individuals in order that they can make choices that they can lead authentic lives commensurate with their deepest held beliefs. And the best way to do this is through an education system that maximises the ability of children to gain the skills to lead an autonomous life. In this sense, as Laborde points out, an outright ban would be self-defeating. Forcing girls who wear the veil out of schools takes them away precisely from the institutions that are best able to equip them with the skills by which they may choose to emancipate themselves from the effects of patriarchal norms. As Carl Packman said on the day, citing Alain Badiou, criminalising women who wear the burqa is much like criminalising victims of rape.
The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) last week launched a $459.7mn flash appeal for Pakistan, in what is the worst natural humanitarian disaster in UN history, with 1600 confirmed dead and 20 million made homeless. Funds have been desperately shortcoming, with only 30% of the required funds pledged thus far.
See here for devastating images of the disaster.
So, with the world largely ignoring the immensity of the disaster, individual charitable aid seems so much more important. My past experience with family responses to natural disasters suggests that members of the diaspora like to organise the collection and first-hand delivery of physical goods. This isn’t a good idea, and if any of you know friends or relatives, who are considering donating a bag of rice or flour, take them to one side and persuade them to send the best gift possible – cash.
Alanna Shaikh of UN Dispatch and Blood & Milk around the time of the Haiti earthquake explained why cash is always best:
Don’t donate goods. Donating stuff instead of money is a serious problem in emergency relief. Only the people on the ground know what’s actually necessary; those of us in the rest of the world can only guess. Some things, like summer clothes and expired medicines are going to be worthless. Other stuff, like warm clothes and bottled water may be helpful to some people in some specific ways. Separating the useful from the useless takes manpower that can be doing more important work. It’s far better to give money so that organizations can buy the things they know they need.
Some people like to donate goods instead of cash because they worry that cash won’t be used in a way that helps the needy. If that’s you, I have two points. 1) Why are you donating to an organization you don’t trust? 2) What’s to stop them from selling your donated item and using the money for whatever they want?
So, as ever, donate generously to the Disasters Emergency Committee, or see this list of charities provided by The Dawn.
Yes, I know I keep heralding a return to blogging every few months and it never materialises, but maybe this time it’ll be different.
In particular, I’ll be starting work on my final year dissertation, which is broadly along the lines of climate change and international relations.
There’s also a number of other exciting things going on at the moment:
- Last Monday I participated in a debate as part of the Progressive Generation Network on banning the burqa in which I made the case against. A write is coming shortly
- I’ve just started being involved in the Livelihoods and Resource Security Policy Development Group of the Young Fabians, which ties in nicely with my dissertation.
- I’ve started getting involved with my constituency Labour party, so anything particularly interesting may get blogged as and when.
In all the discussion over the meaning of General Stanley McChrystal and his aides dissing their civilian bosses, for me was the most shocking comments reported by Mike Hastings had nothing to do with “rival teams”:
Later, McChrystal objected to going to an official NATO dinner in Paris: “I’d rather have my ass kicked by a roomful of people than go out to this dinner.” One of the aides was asked by Rolling Stone who the dinner was with. “Some French minister,” he replied. “It’s fucking gay.”
For Andrew Sullivan, this serves as a reminder that McChrystal was Cheney’s darling.
Marc Ambinder offers a different take:
McChrystal was a hard core operator, aggressive as hell, a JSOC ninja — but he was also a social liberal who tolerated, nay, welcomed gay people into his inner circle, who disdained Fox News, and who grew increasingly frustrated with his reputation as Dick Cheney’s hired assassin….
A lot of the outside discussion of Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell assumes that the integration of gays in the military will require the imposition of a new code of political correctness, one that dissolves the rough, often profane, often exaggeratedly anti-gay banter that serves as a gateway into conversation between buddies.
But the two cultures can co-exist. It seems as if they already do, informally. People who are gay, and who are competent, and who have been tabbed, are accepted. And no one is toning down their language; discipline and morale aren’t suffering. It’s the lesson from South Park: there’s “gay,” and then there’s gay. Outside of the military, we are more careful with such language, and that’s probably a good thing — it certainly is for younger kids.
No doubt there will be genuine anxiety among many soldiers about the prospect of serving with gays. No doubt that gays will be genuinely anxious about the prospect of facing real bigotry. But in the special forces community, a model of acceptance seems to already exist.
If you think about it, the special forces is the quintessence of democratic (and maybe Democratic) ideals — rank and position based on merit, guaranteed health care, labor protection for civilians. And acceptance of gays.
The coarse language in the camaraderie between soldiers may be one thing, but surely an aide to the Commander-in-Chief’s top person in Afghanistan should know not to use the language of hate speech when conversing with the media?
I’ve been following with some interest all the various forecasts of seat shares, so I thought I’d collect them here: As of the afternoon of 6/5/2010:
|
Seat Shares |
|||||||||
|
6th May – 10:00 |
FINAL 6th May
|
FINAL 6th May |
FINAL |
FINAL 6th May |
|||||
|
Without tactical voting |
With tactical voting |
Assuming different marginal swings |
Assuming UNS |
Assuming regional swings |
Assuming different marginal swings |
||||
|
Conservative |
275 |
251 |
310 |
307 |
282 |
299 |
308 |
312 |
313 |
|
Labour |
264 |
286 |
211 |
229 |
256 |
226 |
215 |
204 |
213 |
|
Liberal Democrats |
79 |
81 |
97 |
82 |
81 |
94 |
95 |
103 |
95 |
So although there’s a lot of volatility, all of the models, other than uniform national swing under tactical voting show Conservatives being the largest party, but short of a majority.
See this post on what the methodological differences are.
Updated
6th May 19:50 – Updated Charles Barry
6th May 17:00 – Updated Hix-Vivyan
6th May 14:25 – Updated LSE’s UNS
6th May 01:43 – Updated Rob Ford et al.
6th May 00:13 – Updated FiveThirtyEight
5th May 21:45 – New forecast from Charles Barry.
5th May 18:00 – Added LSE’s Uniform National Swing model. Though, am still waiting for updates based on the final polls to be released shortly.
- Labour voters are in the majority of Northern and urban areas, and the seats are won by Labour with slim to modest majorities, with vastly lower turnout than Tory seats. So Labour gets to maximize the distribution of votes available to them. In addition, urban constituencies are a smaller size, making them easier to win.
- The majority of Conservative voters are situated in a smaller number of rural and Southern seats. Seats are won by massive majorities, meaning lots of votes are wasted shoring up the majority.
- The Parliamentary Boundary Commission, tasked with redistricting, always uses population data from the beginning of the review period, so new boundaries are often 10 years out of date. As former Labour stronghold industrial areas shed their populations, their constituencies get smaller until the following round of redistricting.
This election is the first using the new post 2005 boundaries, so the tilt towards Labour should be reduced by 15% (which isn’t a big reduction given the size of the bias). - The growing popularity of Lib Dems and other parties eats into the anti-incumbent vote that would normally accrue to Conservative ala Nader in 2000.
Turnout’s likely to be higher this election, so perhaps the Labour bias will be reduced, but I wont count on it.
There’s more here (paywall)
Political scientists have been generally sceptical of the impact of presidential debates on electoral results. However, there’s something different about the UK debates. Given the closeness of the debates to the actual polls, the shorter electoral cycle, and perhaps a political culture that’s more oriented towards debate than the US system, the Lib Dem jump is a little hard to ignore (see Henry Farrell’s primer). Having been pretty annoyed with LabourList’s polynomial trend ‘analysis’ (God help any campaigner actually using it), here’s the loess curve for all the major polls:
Data Source: UK Polling Report
Both the Liberal Democrats and Labour started to gain on the Tories since mid-February, and then the Lib Dem’s fortunes turned dramatically with Nick Clegg’s first debate performance. So far, the jump’s held up, though has probably topped out with the 2nd debate. Brown and Cameron will probably regain some of their vote shares back.
However, translating this into votes and seats is notoriously difficult. I’ve tried to plug in the latest figures on satisfaction with party leaders and the Liberal Democrat vote intention into Nadeau et. al’s regression model to determine final popular vote shares. Ignore the fact that I’m breaking the model, as it’s supposed to be based on retrospective judgement on past economic performance (you can find their original predictions for the elections here). Regression models do take into account the impact of Liberal Democrats on vote shares, but typically only on the anti-incumbent party. A larger shift to the Lib Dems will probably hurt both parties, but Conservatives more than Labour. By divvying up the impact of Lib Dem votes in a 2:1 fashion, we get:
|
Popular Vote Forecasts for May 2010 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Data from 18-19 April / UK Polling Report Average 23 April |
Satisfied with Brown: |
35% |
Satisfied with Cameron: |
45% |
Voter Intent: Lib Dem |
29% |
|
||
|
Labour |
Conservative |
Labour Leads By |
|||||||
|
33% |
40% |
-7% |
|||||||
|
Model Changes: |
|
|
|
|
|||
|
Ratio of votes subtracted by Lib Dems (LAB) |
1 |
3 |
|||||
|
Ratio of votes subtracted by Lib Dems (CON) |
2 |
5.99 |
|||||
However, just changing the Lib Dem vote and its impact on the two parties radically changes the vote shares.
How does this translate into seats? I’ve tried to use Tufte’s regression model (also in Nadeau et. al), however, the model gets Lib Dem seats pretty wrong, and sticking in current figures shows Lib Dem losing seats from the last General Election. Nevertheless, holding other party seats constant, and taking into consideration a very slight reduction in Labour bias in the system, we can estimate Lib Dem results and get the following share of seats:
|
Seats Forecast for May 2010 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Labour |
Conservative |
Lib Dem |
Labour Leads By |
|||
|
42% |
41% |
12% |
2% |
||||
|
274 |
263 |
79 |
11 |
||||
So, Labour can lose 7% of the popular vote, and still get a 2% plurality against the Conservatives. Anyway, who gets the most seats is highly variable, but the final outcome isn’t too different. Either Labour remains the largest party but forms a Lab-Lib coalition, or Conservatives become the largest party but with a Lab-Lib coalition being able to form a clear majority.
And people complain about the US Electoral College being unrepresentative…
If I didn’t have exams going on, I might be tempted to start doing some Monte Carlo’s or some such. But not now.


