The results are in - BBC Climate Prediction Experiment
The climateprediction.net experiment has now concluded, with results to be published in time for the IPCC AR4.
However, they’ve released some information on the future climate of Britain as a sneak preview:
For 2020, the prediction is that temperatures in Britain will be about 1.2C warmer than in the 1970s, chosen as the baseline for this project.
Temperatures are already almost 1C warmer than in the 1970s, so the rise over the next decade or so will be small if the model is right.
In 2050, they will be about 2.5C higher than the 1970s; while by 2080, the figure could be 4C.
The predictions are not exact; and the further from the present day you look, the greater variability there is, so that by 2080 the rise could be as low as 2C or as high as 6C.
Along with higher temperatures the model predicts greater variability in rainfall, with increased risks of floods and of long dry periods.
“These figures basically support the scientific consensus at the moment,” observed Dr Faull.
Another nail in the coffin for denialism, the experiment looked at the effects of solar variability:
“What makes it especially interesting is that we have included changes to the Sun’s output, based on what it has done over the last century; and we find it doesn’t make much difference.
“The idea that such changes could influence climate over and above the human influence we don’t find very likely.”
Source: Your PCs forecast climate future
Originally published on Thu, 18 Jan 2007 22:02:02 GMT
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